Friday, January 13, 2006
Backing Up the Moving Van
Thursday, January 12, 2006
Put Me In Coach
Sunday, January 08, 2006
How Good Is Brandon Watson?
The 23 year old finished 355/400/419 in 88 games in New Orleans. His appearance at #1 is more a function of the fact that the Nationals lack major league prospects at the Triple-A level. I have written about Watson before. His 355 BA was buoyed almost entirely by singles (113/132 hits) and he does not draw a large number of walks (28BB in 372AB). He also needs to become more selective stealing bases as 31/44 is not the greatest SB %. If Watson can continue to hit the ball on the ground, learn to take a walk and use his speed, I believe he has the ability to be a serviceable leadoff hitting CF.The one think I neglected to mention was how hitting in the Pacific Coast League artificially inflated his numbers. Thanks to a posting over as John Sickels' Minor League Ball (a great site for anyone interested in intelligent discussions of anything minors), I can now compare Watson to the average player in the PCL. Average PCL player (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS): 278/350/442/792 Brandon Watson: 355/400/419/819 While Watson's OPS is an impressive 819, it is only 3.5% higher than the average player in the PCL. Additionally, you need to take into account the park factors of New Orleans (from 2003-2005): R: 0.83; H: 0.96; 2B: 1.15; HR: 0.69; BB: 1.04; K: 1.21 While New Orleans is a relatively neutral park for overall hitting, the difficulty in hitting HRs makes it most certainly a singles/doubles park. This shows me that much of the initial value of Watson's statistics are, in a large part, league and park influenced. Therefore, any direct correlation between inflated AAA numbers and expecations of major league success need to be tempered. UPDATE: I referred to the latest edition of Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster (TBF). TBF lists Major League Equivalents (MLEs) in order to reflect how a player's previous performance might look in the majors. MLEs normalize the variances introduced by park/league factors. Watson's 2005 stat line with the Zephyrs would look like this in the majors: AB: 518 R: 61 H: 141 2B: 15 3B: 2 HR: 1 RBI: 23 BB: 26 K: 43 SB: 28 CS: 21 BA: 272 OBP: 307 SLG: 313 OPS: 620 Needless to say, the value of his AAA numbers are definitely diminished when you attempt to extrapolate it to major league equivalents. His lack of BB is pronounced with an OBP of 307, not exactly what you would be looking for out of a leadoff hitter (think more an OBP of 350). Additionally, the speed he brings comes at a cost, 28/49 in SB attempts means he is running the team out of a potential run 43% of the time. All this being said, Watson is worth a look in the spring but thoughts of Endy Chavez v2.0 may not be that far out of line. Let's hope he learns better than Endy did.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Nationals Minor League Roster Moves
- Lane: the 26-year old 1B finished his 7th season in the Nationals organization splitting his time between the GCL Nationals (391/442/391), Savannah Sand Gnats (389/452/639), and Harrisburg Senators (227/348/328). This was his 3rd straight season no higher than Double-A ball, he's an organizational player.
- Feliciano: the 26-year old OF was signed in 2005 as a minor league free agent from Tampa Bay. He played the whole season in Harrisburg (280/315/351) where he was 10/16 in SB attempts. Another organizational player.
- Chavez: the 24-year old OF finished his second straight season in High-A ball, Potomac in 2005 where he batted 251/325/318 with 10/23 in SB attempts. Going on 25 and never a day above High-A ball, he's around just to fill out minor league rosters.
- Yepez: the 24-year old SS spent the season in Potomac (270/345/365). He's probably best served as a utility IF, though making the majors is a longshot at this point.
- Gil: the 27-year old RP spent his first season with the Nationals organization splitting his time between Harrisburg (32.2IP 1.13WHIP 8K/9IP 2.5BB/9IP 0.6HR/9IP) and New Orleans (38IP 1.21WHIP 6.9K/9IP 2.8BB/9IP 1HR/9IP). His peripheral numbers are intriguing and he could be a RH RP option that the Nats will turn to when needed.
- Sylvester: the 29-year old RP spent his first season with the Nationals organization in Harrisburg (41.1IP 1.67WHIP 11.3K/9IP 6.3BB/9IP 1.7HR/9IP). He's an organizational RP in 2006.
- Rivera: Rivera is a 28-year old RH RP who spent his second straight season with the Nationals in Harrisburg (76.2IP 1.20WHIP 8.2K/9IP 2.4BB/9IP 0.4HR/9IP). Rivera should ideally start the season in New Orleans, and along with Gil be considered a replacement bullpen option if there are any injuries to guys like Majewski, Ayala, or Bergmann.
Signed CA Brandon Harper, OF Michael Vento, SS Tony Medrano, LHP Jacobo Meque and RHP Anastacio Martinez.
- Harper: Here's what I said back on 12/13 ... "the 29-year old has played the last two seasons at AAA with the Detroit Tigers. In 102 games, he batted (roughly) 235/325/350 with 9HR 41 RBI and 46/34 K/BB ratio. He's probably destined for New Orleans if he sticks with the Nationals. As the youngest of the bunch, his age is an asset." It's interesting that only Harper made BBA's transaction list and not any of the other three CA options (Gonzalez, Castillo, or DiFelice).
- Vento: the 27-year old RH OF finally made the majors in 2005 with the Yankees (2G 2AB 0H). He spent the majority of the last 2.5 seasons in Triple-A Columbus (2003: 304/363/473; 2004: 275/333/441; 2005: 291/365/445). He demonstrated an adequate K/BB ratio of 209/97. He's probably destined for a full season with New Orlenas
- Medrano: the 31-year old SS spent his 2005 season with Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre (221/281/286). An organizational player if there ever was one.
- Meque: the 22-year old LH SP/RP spent the past two seasons in the Reds organization (2005: 49.1IP 1.64WHIP 8.4K/9IP 6.6BB/9IP 0.7HR/9IP). I'm guessing the Nationals are simply gambling on a young arm. He should begin the season in Savannah.
- Martinez: the 25-year old RHP RP has spent practically his entire career in the Red Sox organization (actually earning a World Series ring in 2004 for 10.2 uninspiring IP). In 58.2IP in 2005, primarily in relief, he put up 1.72WHIP, 7.1K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, and 0.6HR/9IP. His 2006 will likely be spent in New Orleans.
Additionally, the Nationals lost two minor league pitchers from 2005, RH SP Chad Durbin signed with the Detroit Tigers and LH SP Matt White signed with the Philadelphia Phillies. Neither were anything more than AAAA SPs at this point in their careers, but that is an area that Nationals most certainly need to improve entering 2006.
Thursday, December 29, 2005
Farm Authority Report - 12/26 to 12/28
- Leones de Caracas: Marco Yepez 1B/3B - 1/3 [12/26]
- Leones de Caracas: Marco Yepez 1B/3B - 0/2 1K [12/27]
- Leones de Caracas: Tony Armas SP - 4IP 5H 0R 0BB 3K [12/26]
- Navegantes de Magallanes: Alex Escobar RF - 1/3 1R 2K [12/27]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 0/4 1R 1K [12/27]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 2/5 1RBI 3K double [12/26]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 1/5 [12/27]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Wiki Gonzalez CA - 1/3 1RBI 1K [12/26]
- Tigres de Aragua: Ramon Castro 3B - 1/4 1RBI 1K [12/27]
- 12/28 pending
Liga Mexicana del Pacifico
- no Nationals played
Liga de Beisbol Dominicano
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 1/4 1BB 1K [12/27]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 1/4 [12/28]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Alberto Castillo CA - 0/4 1RBI 1K [12/27]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Alberto Castillo CA - 0/2 [12/28]
Liga de Beisbol Profesional de Puerto Rico
- Website inaccesible
Tuesday, December 27, 2005
Farm Authority Report - The Holiday Edition
- Leones de Caracas: Marco Yepez 3B - 1/3 1K [12/12]
- Leones de Caracas: Marco Yepez 3B - 0/2 1K [12/19]
- Leones de Caracas: Marco Yepez PH/1B - 0/1 1BB [12/23]
- Navegantes de Magallanes: Alex Escobar PH/DH - 0/0 1BB [12/18]
- Navegantes de Magallanes: Alex Escobar RF - 2/3 2R 3RBI 1BB 1HR [12/19]
- Navegantes de Magallanes: Alex Escobar RF - 1/3 1R 1K [12/20]
- Navegantes de Magallanes: Alex Escobar LF - 1/3 [12/23]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 2/5 1R 2RBI 1BB 1K 1HR [12/12]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 2/5 1R 1K double [12/14]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 1/3 1R 1RBI 2BB double [12/15]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 1/4 1K [12/17]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 1/4 1R 2RBI 1HR 2K [12/18]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 1/4 1K [12/19]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 3/5 2R 5RBI 2doubles 1HR [12/22]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Jason Stevenson SP - 5.2IP 2H 0R 3BB 3K; Win [12/12]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Mayque Quintero SP - 3IP 3H 1R(1ER) 1BB 3K [12/12]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Jacobo Sequea RP - 1IP 0H 0R 0BB 1K [12/14]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Jacobo Sequea RP - 0.1IP 1H 0R 0BB 0K [12/15]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 0/4 1K [12/12]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 2/5 1R 2RBI 1K double 1E [12/13]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 1/2 1R 1RBI 2BB 1K double [12/15]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway DH - 0/3 1BB 2K [12/16]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway DH - 1/3 2K [12/18]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 3/4 2RBI [12/20]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 1/2 2BB 1K [12/22]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 2/5 1K [12/23]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Wiki Gonzalez CA - 2/3 1BB [12/12]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Wiki Gonzalez CA - 1/4 1R [12/13]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Wiki Gonzalez CA - 2/3 2RBI [12/15]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Wiki Gonzalez CA - 0/4 1K 1PB [12/16]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Wiki Gonzalez CA - 1/3 1K 1E [12/18]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Wiki Gonzalez CA - 0/3 1BB 1PB [12/19]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Wiki Gonzalez CA - 0/3 1BB [12/20]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Wiki Gonzalez CA - 0/2 1RBI [12/22]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Wiki Gonzalez CA - 0/3 1BB 1K [12/23]
- Tigres de Aragua: Ramon Castro PH/3B - 0/3 3K [12/12]
- Tigres de Aragua: Ramon Castro 3B - 0/1 1R 3BB [12/15]
- Tigres de Aragua: Ramon Castro 3B - 0/4 1R 1K [12/17]
- Tigres de Aragua: Ramon Castro 3B - 0/1 [12/18]
- No games on 12/24 and 12/25
- Boxscores from 12/26 pending
- no Nationals played
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 2/4 1RBI [12/12]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 1/4 2R 1BB 1K [12/13]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 2/5 2RBI [12/15]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B/LF - 1/5 1R 1E [12/16]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 1/5 1R triple [12/17]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 2/4 1BB [12/18]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 2/5 2R double [12/20]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 0/2 2BB 1K [12/21]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 2/4 1R 1RBI 1BB triple [12/26]
Liga de Beisbol Profesional de Puerto Rico
- Website inaccesible
Saturday, December 24, 2005
Happy Holidays
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
A Christmas Carroll
Non-Tender Fallout
Friday, December 16, 2005
Good Bye, and Good Luck
Washington Nationals Organizational Big Board
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Tools of Ignorance
- Wiki Gonzalez (baseball-reference/thebaseballcube): The 31-year old has spent six season in the majors, most of which was with SD (he spent 2005 in SEA). He probably has the best bat of the bunch (240/312/362) 17HR in 801 career AB. And his glove is solid enough for a guy who will likely play 30-40 games in 2006 (990 FldPct; 24E in 242 career games; 22PB). He prides himself on calling good games and handling a pitching staff. He's a favorite for the backup spot in 2006.
- Alberto Castillo (baseball-reference/thebaseballcube): The 35-year old has spent parts of 11 seasons in the majors for seven different teams (NYM, TOR, STL, NYY, SF, KC, and OAK). Another servicable backup catcher, (222/295/296) and 990 career fielding percentage (23E in 398 career games) and 20 career PB. He, along with Gonzalez, are the favorites to backup Schneider. The odd man out may end up as the starter at New Orleans.
- Mike DiFelice (baseball-reference/thebaseballcube): The 36-year old spent parts of 10 seasons with seven different teams (STL, TB, AZ, KC, DET, CHC, and NYM). He's the dictionary definition of a backup catcher, little stick (career 238/288/359) with 28HR in 1,473AB and an adequate glove, 989 Fld Pct (36E in 495 career games). A few too many PB (50 in his career) which may conjure up images of Gary Bennett. My guess is he doesn't stick with the Nationals.
- Brandon Harper (thebaseballcube): The 29-year old has played the last two seasons at AAA with the Detroit Tigers. In 102 games, he batted (roughly) 235/325/350 with 9HR 41 RBI and 46/34 K/BB ratio. He's probably destined for New Orleans if he sticks with the Nationals. As the youngest of the bunch, his age is an asset.
- Hector Ortiz (baseball-reference/thebaseballcube): The 32-year old has limited major league experience (KC and TEX), 91G 5E 990FldPct. He has a bit more of a bat than Castillo, 288/339/358. He spent the 2005 with New Orleans (248/286/283) in 74 games. If he was going to be the choice, I'm guessing he would have got a call in September over Keith Osik. He's probably one of the odd men out of the Nats plans.
- Craig Kuzmic (thebaseballcube): The 28-year old split his first year with Washington between Harrisburg (236/366/439) and New Orleans (262/355/434). He had a combined 89/51 K/BB ratio between the two levels. Unless he demonstrates something in the spring, he may be released rather than return to New Orleans for a second year.
Welcome Aboard
Farm Authority Report - Playing Catch Up
- Leones de Caracas: Marco Yepez PH/2B - 1/2 [12/8]
- Leones de Caracas: Marco Yepez 3B - 1/4 2RBI [12/9]
- Leones de Caracas: Marco Yepez PH/2B - 0/1 1BB [12/11]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 2/5 1R 2RBI 1BB 1K 1HR [12/8]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 0/4 1K [12/9]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 0/2 Sacrifice [12/10 Game 1]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 1/4 1R 2RBI double [12/10 Game 2]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 0/4 1K [12/11]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Jason Stevenson SP - 5.2IP 2H 0R 3BB 3K; Win [12/9]
- Pastora de los Llanos: Mayque Quintero SP - 3IP 3H 1R(1ER) 1BB 3K [12/10]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 0/4 1K [12/8]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway DH - 2/5 2R 1RBI double [12/9]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 1/3 1R 1BB 1K [12/10]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 1/4 2K [12/11]
- Tigres de Aragua: Ramon Castro PH/3B - 0/3 3K [12/8]
- Tigres de Aragua: Ramon Castro 3B /2B- 2/4 2R 1K [12/9]
- 12/12 box scores pending
- no Nationals played
Liga de Beisbol Dominicano
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 2/4 1RBI [12/8]
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 1/4 2R 1RBI 1SF [12/9]
- Dominican Republic vs Puerto Rico All-Star Game over the weekend
- Dominican Republic vs Puerto Rico All-Star Game over the weekend
Friday, December 09, 2005
Rule 5 Draft Review
- Kansas Royals minor league 2B, Brandon Powell - The 25-year old LH 2B hit 287/339/511 with a 97/28 K/BB ratio and 18 HR in High A. 25-years old for High-A speaks volume for his expectations. He's likely to be utility type player with Harrisburg.
- San Francisco Giants minor league RHP, Jose Sanchez - In 133IP in Low-A (on loan to the Mets), the 24-year old had a 4.20ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 5.9 K/9IP, 2.5 BB/9IP, and 1.2 HR/9IP. He was too old for Low-A. He's likely to start in Potomac, perhaps in Harrisburg if he's transferred to the bullpen.
- Arizona Diamondbacks minor league RHP, Josh Perrault - In 78.1IP in High A, the 23-year old had a 2.09 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.2 K/9IP, 2.2 BB/9IP, and 0.5 HR/9IP. He also was really old for the level so those numbers needed to be taken with a grain of salt. I'd guess he'll start the season at Harrisburg.
The Nationals did not participate in the Double-A portion of the draft.
Farm Authority Report 12/6 to 12/8
- 12/8 boxscores pending
- Pastora de los Llanos: Frank Diaz CF - 0/3 1R 1BB 1K [12/7]
- Tiburones de la Guaira: Larry Broadway 1B - 1/3 [12/7]
- no Nationals played
- 12/7 and 12/8 box scores pending
- Aguilas Cibaenas: Bernie Castro 2B - 3/5 3R [12/6]
Liga de Beisbol Profesional de Puerto Rico
- Edgardo Baez 167/231/417 2HR 4RBI
Thursday, December 08, 2005
Rule 5 Draft Preview
A player not on a team's Major League 40-man roster is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if: the player was 18 or younger when he first signed a pro contract and this is the fourth Rule 5 draft since he signed, OR if he was 19 or older when he first signed a pro contract and this is the third Rule 5 draft since he signed. A player drafted onto a Major League roster in the Rule 5 draft must remain in the majors (on the 25-man active roster or the DL) for all of the subsequent season, or the drafting club must attempt to return him to his original club. However, since a returned Rule 5 player must first be placed on outright waivers, a third club could claim the player off waivers. But of course, that club would then also have to keep him in the majors all season, or offer him back to his original club. Occasionally, the drafting club will work out a trade with the player's original team, allowing the drafting club to retain the player but send him to the minors.I'm not going to be able to improve on the reviews you will find at Baseball Analysts or Baseball America or Rotoworld. But I wanted to throw out a few names that may be of interest to the Nationals:
- Steve Andrade - 28-year old RH RP from the Blue Jays who had a 71/16 K/BB ratio in 50.2IP in Double-A. He may be superfluous with Bergman and Majewski, but he's a quality RHP.
- Jarred Ball - 22-year old CF from the D-Backs. 253/377/363 with 39SB in Double-A. With the trade of Brad Wilkerson and the apparent lack of faith in Ryan Church, he is worth consideration.
- Gregor Blanco - 22-year old CF from the Braves. 252/367/386 with 28SB in Double-A. Same reason as above.
- Fabio Castro - 21-year old LH RP from the White Sox who had a 75/37 K/BB ratio in 79IP in High-A. Rumor has it that the Royals will grab him at #1 and trade him to Philadelphia.
- Matt Chico - 22-year old LH SP from the D-Backs. Had a down 2005 but still put up 137/54 K/BB in 162IP split between Double-A and High-A. He could be an intriguing option as a candidate for the #5 spot in the rotation.
- Chris Cooper - 27-year old LH RP from the Indians. 75/21 K/BB in 72IP between Double-A and Triple-A. An interesting LH option out of the pen.
- Ben Francisco - 24-year old CF from the Indians. 307/357/474 in Double-A. Another Wlikerson replacement option.
- Kevin Howard - 25-year old 2B/3B from the Reds. 296/346/428 in Double-A; also led Arizona Fall League in hitting. The only Bowden guy from Cincy I'd think about though the last thing the Nats need is yet another 2B.
- JD Martin - 23-year old RH SP from the Indians. 63/8 K/BB ratio in 56.2IP in Double-A before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He may be worth grabbing and storing on the 60-day DL.
- Mike Megrew - 22-year old LH SP from the Dodgers. Underwent Tommy John surgery in 2004. If he's recovered he's worth consideration potentially as a LH specialist out of the pen in 2006 with designs to return to starting later.
- Rafael Rodriguez - 21-year old RH SP from the Angels. 118/60 K/BB in 146.1IP in Low/High-A ball. It might be rushing him to the majors but he could be a RH specialist in 2006 with designs to return to starting later.
- Davis Romero - 23-year old LH SP from the Blue Jays. 136/34 K/BB in 124.2IP in High-A. A definite gamble but worth the look.
- Vince Sinisi - 24-year old corner OF from the Rangers. Rehabbing from 2004 broken arm by hitting 363/438/600 in High-A and 258/300/343 in Double-A in 2005. A toolsy OF in the positive sense.
And here are some other guys from Jim Bowden's tenure in Cincinnati, which means they are also candidates (a la Tony Blanco from 2004):
- Chris Dickerson - 23-year old toolsy OF. Pass.
- Carlos Guevara - 24-year old RH RP. Pass.
- Thomas Pauly - 24-year old RH SP. Recovering from torn labrum. Pass.
- David Shafer - 23-year old RH RP. No improvement on Bergmann. Pass.
Josh Whitesell, a LH 1B with a proclivity for strikeouts, and Rogearvin Bernadina, a speedy OF who just completed his third straight season in Savannah, are the only potential losses, but I doubt either will be going anywhere.
I'll have my recap if the Nationals add or lose anyone.
The Shallow End of the Pool
- Livan Hernandez
- John Patterson
- Brian Lawrence
- Ryan Drese (assuming he's recovered from surgery)
- ???
I thought that Galarraga would have had a really solid opportunity to give Darrell Rasner and whatever reclamation project Bowden went after in a battle for the #5 spot in the rotation. One of the few things I got from my reading of Scout's Honor that I could not agree with more ... a team needs to have replacement value players available to them in the minor leagues for both themselves and trades. Well, the Nats didn't (and still don't have either). Trading a prospect ranked #5 by Baseball America (#4 in my opinion) from a farm system as troubled as the Nationals is not the wisest move for the long term health of the organization. Listen, I'm a fan but I realize that the Nationals are not going to compete for a World Series any time soon. And trading away what limited depth exists in the minor leagues does nothing for the Nationals' rebuilding process in their player development system.
Let's hope there is another mover (or two) in the pipeline turning the Nationals' overabundance of middle infielders (specifically 2B) into pieces needed to re-establish a viable farm system.
Tuesday, December 06, 2005
Farm Authority Report 12/5/05
- no games
- All-Star game scheduled for Tuesday
- no Nationals played
- no games
- I will provide weekly updates to players on Fridays