Backing Up the Moving Van

Nationals Farm Authority is changing their digs. Future postings will be found over at DCSportsNet [http://www.farmauthority.dcsportsnet.com/] (Thanks, Yuda). I've already migrated all previous postings over there. See you on the other side.

Put Me In Coach

Over the past couple of days, the Nationals have filled out both their major and minor league coaching staffs. At the major league level, the Nationals named Mitchell Page their hitting coach. Page is a good news story for the Nationals. He left the St Louis Cardinals after their 2004 World Series season to face a drinking problem. He spent the 2005 season getting his life back in order while serving as the Nationals' minor league hitting instructor. What was clear is that he didn't lose his ability to help hitters discover (or re-discover) their hitting stroke, as demonstrated by Marlon Byrd's turnaround after a month with Page in New Orleans. It's great to see Page get back to doing what he does best. Additionally, the Nationals named Davey Lopes their 1st base coach, replacing Don Buford, and Tony Beasley their 3rd base coach, replacing Dave Huppert. Lopes has major league experience as both an All-Star player with the Dodgers and also as a manger with the Milwaukee Brewers (144-195 in a little more than two seasons, 2000-02). Lopes will hopefully be able to translate his baserunning ability into lessons for the Nationals who were abyssmal on the bases in 2005 (45/90 in SB attempts; last place in SB while 1st place in CS). Beasley is coming off of five successful seasons managing in the Pirates organization (372-258) helping to develop Pirates prospects such as Ryan Doumit, Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Bryan Bullington, Brad Eldred, and Chris Shelton. Beasley's minor league resume is putting him on track for a major league managing position in the not too distant future. The Nats also re-arranged their minor league coaching staff. In 2006, look for the following (2005 job in parentheses; new coaches in bold): New Orleans Manager - Tim Foli Pitching Coach - Steve McCatty Hitting Coach - Rick Eckstein (Vermont) Harrisburg Manager - John Stearns Pitching Coach - Rick Tomlin Hitting Coach - Mike Hart (New Orleans) Potomac Manager - Randy Knorr (Savannah) Pitching Coach - Charlie Corbell (New Orleans) Hitting Coach - Troy Gingrich Savannah Manager - Bobby Williams (Vermont) Pitching Coach -Terry Clark Hitting Coach - Jerry Browne Vermont Manager - Edgar Caceres Pitching Coach - Mark Grater (Savannah) Hitting Coach - Tony Tarasco Gulf Coast League Manager - Bobby Henley (Savannah) Pitching Coach - Franklyn Bravo Hitting Coach - Jason Camilli

How Good Is Brandon Watson?

A common sentiment among the writers covering the Nationals is the prospect of Brandon Watson playin CF and leading off for the Nats in 2006. Back in September, I ranked Watson as my #1 hitting prospect from the New Orleans Zephyrs. I said:

The 23 year old finished 355/400/419 in 88 games in New Orleans. His appearance at #1 is more a function of the fact that the Nationals lack major league prospects at the Triple-A level. I have written about Watson before. His 355 BA was buoyed almost entirely by singles (113/132 hits) and he does not draw a large number of walks (28BB in 372AB). He also needs to become more selective stealing bases as 31/44 is not the greatest SB %. If Watson can continue to hit the ball on the ground, learn to take a walk and use his speed, I believe he has the ability to be a serviceable leadoff hitting CF.

The one think I neglected to mention was how hitting in the Pacific Coast League artificially inflated his numbers. Thanks to a posting over as John Sickels' Minor League Ball (a great site for anyone interested in intelligent discussions of anything minors), I can now compare Watson to the average player in the PCL. Average PCL player (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS): 278/350/442/792 Brandon Watson: 355/400/419/819 While Watson's OPS is an impressive 819, it is only 3.5% higher than the average player in the PCL. Additionally, you need to take into account the park factors of New Orleans (from 2003-2005): R: 0.83; H: 0.96; 2B: 1.15; HR: 0.69; BB: 1.04; K: 1.21 While New Orleans is a relatively neutral park for overall hitting, the difficulty in hitting HRs makes it most certainly a singles/doubles park. This shows me that much of the initial value of Watson's statistics are, in a large part, league and park influenced. Therefore, any direct correlation between inflated AAA numbers and expecations of major league success need to be tempered. UPDATE: I referred to the latest edition of Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster (TBF). TBF lists Major League Equivalents (MLEs) in order to reflect how a player's previous performance might look in the majors. MLEs normalize the variances introduced by park/league factors. Watson's 2005 stat line with the Zephyrs would look like this in the majors: AB: 518 R: 61 H: 141 2B: 15 3B: 2 HR: 1 RBI: 23 BB: 26 K: 43 SB: 28 CS: 21 BA: 272 OBP: 307 SLG: 313 OPS: 620 Needless to say, the value of his AAA numbers are definitely diminished when you attempt to extrapolate it to major league equivalents. His lack of BB is pronounced with an OBP of 307, not exactly what you would be looking for out of a leadoff hitter (think more an OBP of 350). Additionally, the speed he brings comes at a cost, 28/49 in SB attempts means he is running the team out of a potential run 43% of the time. All this being said, Watson is worth a look in the spring but thoughts of Endy Chavez v2.0 may not be that far out of line. Let's hope he learns better than Endy did.

Nationals Minor League Roster Moves

Baseball America has an update of the Nationals' minor league transactions. Of note: Re-signed 1B Richard Lane, OFs Jesus Feliciano and Ender Chavez, SS Marco Yepez, RHPs David Gil, Billy Sylvester and Rabell Rivera (Update: Rabell Rivera is actually Saul Rivera)

• Lane: the 26-year old 1B finished his 7th season in the Nationals organization splitting his time between the GCL Nationals (391/442/391), Savannah Sand Gnats (389/452/639), and Harrisburg Senators (227/348/328). This was his 3rd straight season no higher than Double-A ball, he's an organizational player.
• Feliciano: the 26-year old OF was signed in 2005 as a minor league free agent from Tampa Bay. He played the whole season in Harrisburg (280/315/351) where he was 10/16 in SB attempts. Another organizational player.
• Chavez: the 24-year old OF finished his second straight season in High-A ball, Potomac in 2005 where he batted 251/325/318 with 10/23 in SB attempts. Going on 25 and never a day above High-A ball, he's around just to fill out minor league rosters.
• Yepez: the 24-year old SS spent the season in Potomac (270/345/365). He's probably best served as a utility IF, though making the majors is a longshot at this point.
• Gil: the 27-year old RP spent his first season with the Nationals organization splitting his time between Harrisburg (32.2IP 1.13WHIP 8K/9IP 2.5BB/9IP 0.6HR/9IP) and New Orleans (38IP 1.21WHIP 6.9K/9IP 2.8BB/9IP 1HR/9IP). His peripheral numbers are intriguing and he could be a RH RP option that the Nats will turn to when needed.
• Sylvester: the 29-year old RP spent his first season with the Nationals organization in Harrisburg (41.1IP 1.67WHIP 11.3K/9IP 6.3BB/9IP 1.7HR/9IP). He's an organizational RP in 2006.
• Rivera: Rivera is a 28-year old RH RP who spent his second straight season with the Nationals in Harrisburg (76.2IP 1.20WHIP 8.2K/9IP 2.4BB/9IP 0.4HR/9IP). Rivera should ideally start the season in New Orleans, and along with Gil be considered a replacement bullpen option if there are any injuries to guys like Majewski, Ayala, or Bergmann.

Signed CA Brandon Harper, OF Michael Vento, SS Tony Medrano, LHP Jacobo Meque and RHP Anastacio Martinez.

• Harper: Here's what I said back on 12/13 ... "the 29-year old has played the last two seasons at AAA with the Detroit Tigers. In 102 games, he batted (roughly) 235/325/350 with 9HR 41 RBI and 46/34 K/BB ratio. He's probably destined for New Orleans if he sticks with the Nationals. As the youngest of the bunch, his age is an asset." It's interesting that only Harper made BBA's transaction list and not any of the other three CA options (Gonzalez, Castillo, or DiFelice).
• Vento: the 27-year old RH OF finally made the majors in 2005 with the Yankees (2G 2AB 0H). He spent the majority of the last 2.5 seasons in Triple-A Columbus (2003: 304/363/473; 2004: 275/333/441; 2005: 291/365/445). He demonstrated an adequate K/BB ratio of 209/97. He's probably destined for a full season with New Orlenas
• Medrano: the 31-year old SS spent his 2005 season with Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre (221/281/286). An organizational player if there ever was one.
• Meque: the 22-year old LH SP/RP spent the past two seasons in the Reds organization (2005: 49.1IP 1.64WHIP 8.4K/9IP 6.6BB/9IP 0.7HR/9IP). I'm guessing the Nationals are simply gambling on a young arm. He should begin the season in Savannah.
• Martinez: the 25-year old RHP RP has spent practically his entire career in the Red Sox organization (actually earning a World Series ring in 2004 for 10.2 uninspiring IP). In 58.2IP in 2005, primarily in relief, he put up 1.72WHIP, 7.1K/9IP, 4.1BB/9IP, and 0.6HR/9IP. His 2006 will likely be spent in New Orleans.

Additionally, the Nationals lost two minor league pitchers from 2005, RH SP Chad Durbin signed with the Detroit Tigers and LH SP Matt White signed with the Philadelphia Phillies. Neither were anything more than AAAA SPs at this point in their careers, but that is an area that Nationals most certainly need to improve entering 2006.